DAILY BRIEF

The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day FOMC meeting today at 2:00 PM ET with a rate decision that carries more weight than any since the Iran war began. Oil at $103/barrel has fundamentally changed the inflation calculus. The dot plot — the Fed's projection for future rate moves — will be the most scrutinized chart on Wall Street today. Meanwhile, Israel's assassination of three senior Iranian officials overnight has escalated the conflict to a new phase. Iran launched retaliatory missiles at central Israel early Wednesday. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with 150+ vessels stranded and insurance rates up 1,000%. Key levels to watch: SPX 6,900 reclaim for bulls, 6,765 support. Powell's language on "supply-driven" versus "demand-driven" inflation will set the market narrative for the rest of March. NVIDIA GTC continues with Jensen moderating a panel on open vs. closed AI models at 12:30 PM PT. March Madness First Four wraps tonight before the main bracket tips off Thursday.