The Greatest Investor Alive Is Sitting on His Hands
Berkshire Hathaway held $325 billion in cash and T-bills at the end of Q4 2025. That''s more cash than the GDP of Finland. The man who built his fortune buying stocks is not buying stocks.
When Warren Buffett — the most successful investor in history — decides the best use of capital is parking it in Treasury bills earning 5%, you should pay attention.
What Buffett''s Cash Position Tells Us
- Stocks are expensive. The S&P 500 trades at 22x forward earnings vs. a 20-year average of 17x. Buffett has consistently said he won''t overpay, and by his metrics, almost everything is overpriced.
- T-bills are attractive. Why take equity risk for an 8-10% expected return when T-bills yield 5% risk-free? The risk premium for owning stocks has rarely been this thin.
- He''s waiting for a crash. Buffett''s greatest investments came during crises: Goldman Sachs in 2008, Bank of America in 2011, airline stocks during COVID. He needs a crash to deploy $325 billion effectively.
- Succession planning. With Greg Abel taking over, Buffett may be leaving his successor a war chest to deploy on day one.
Should You Follow Buffett?
Not blindly. Buffett''s problem is unique — he needs to deploy hundreds of billions, which limits him to mega-cap opportunities. You can buy small-cap stocks, real estate, and prediction market contracts that Buffett can''t.
But the principle applies: having cash when everyone else is invested gives you optionality. If oil spikes to $150, or Iran escalates, or the tariff deal collapses — cash lets you buy while others panic-sell.
The Buffett move for regular investors: keep 10-20% of your portfolio in a 4.5% HYSA. Not as emergency fund — as opportunity fund.
