Five Weeks of Red
If the S and P 500 closes lower today, it will mark the fifth consecutive losing week. The last time that happened was 2023. The Nasdaq already closed in correction territory Thursday — down 10 percent from its October peak.
This is not a dip. This is a trend.
The Numbers
Thursday was the worst single day since the war began. S and P 500 fell 1.74 percent. Dow dropped 469 points. Nasdaq sank 2.38 percent. Oil surged back above $106 Brent after Iran rejected the ceasefire. Gold bounced to $4,545. The VIX settled at 25.3 — elevated but not panic.
The OECD raised its G20 inflation forecast to 4 percent. The ECB president said markets were too optimistic. Goldman says elevated oil could persist through 2027. Every major institution is warning that this is not temporary.
What Is Driving This
One thing: oil. Brent crude has averaged over $100 since the war started. That feeds into everything — transportation costs, manufacturing inputs, food prices, consumer spending. The Fed cannot cut rates into rising inflation. Companies cannot maintain margins with elevated input costs. Consumers cannot spend when gas approaches $4 per gallon.
The war created an oil shock. The oil shock is creating a potential recession. The potential recession is what the market is pricing now.
Today
GDP third estimate and Michigan consumer sentiment data drop this morning. If GDP gets revised down or consumer sentiment craters, the recession narrative gets louder. If both hold, the market might get a relief bounce into the weekend on the extended strike pause.
Five straight losing weeks. The question is whether this is the bottom or just the middle.
