Howard Just Made History. Texas Barely Survived. March Is Here.
The 2026 NCAA Tournament opened Tuesday night in Dayton with the First Four, and if you were not paying attention, you missed one of the best opening-night stories in tournament history. Howard University became the first HBCU to win a First Four game, and they did it in a way that felt like a movie script nobody would greenlight because it would seem too on the nose.
March Madness does not care about your bracket. It never has. And this year's tournament is already proving that the chaos starts before the first round even tips off.
Howard Makes HBCU History
Let us start with the headline that matters most.
Howard defeated Alabama State 72-64 in what was functionally a play-in game between two 16-seeds. But calling it "just a play-in game" misses the magnitude of what happened. Howard is the first Historically Black College or University to win a game in the NCAA Tournament since Norfolk State's legendary upset of Missouri in 2012 — and this time, the Bison did it as a program that was picked to finish last in the MEAC preseason poll.
Howard guard Bryce Harris dropped 24 points, including a pull-up three with under two minutes left that effectively sealed the game. The Howard student section in Dayton — which somehow materialized despite the game being on a Tuesday night in Ohio — was the loudest group in the building.
Howard now advances to face the overall No. 1 seed on Friday. The odds are not in their favor. But 16-seeds have beaten 1-seeds before — ask Virginia about UMBC in 2018 — and Howard is playing with the kind of energy that makes probability tables nervous.
Texas Survives NC State in Overtime
The other First Four matchup delivered exactly the kind of gut-wrenching, ref-contested, overtime chaos that March is famous for.
Texas edged NC State 78-74 in overtime after a regulation game that featured six lead changes in the final four minutes and a controversial no-call on what appeared to be a foul on NC State's final possession of regulation.
Texas looked like a team that will make noise if they can get out of the first weekend. Their defense in overtime was suffocating — they held NC State to 4 points in the extra period. But they also looked like a team that can beat themselves, turning the ball over 19 times in regulation and nearly blowing a 12-point second-half lead.
NC State, making their second consecutive tournament appearance after last year's miraculous Final Four run, goes home. Their seniors deserved better. But March does not do "deserved."
What We Learned From Night One
Two games. Four teams. And already the tournament is telling us things about what this year's field looks like.
1. The mid-majors are not here to participate. Howard did not play like a team happy to be in Dayton. They played like a team that expected to win. That confidence — earned through a 28-win season and a conference tournament run — is going to show up in other mid-major matchups this week.
2. Experience matters, but it is not everything. NC State had the tournament experience. Texas had the talent. Talent won, but it needed overtime to do it. When you are filling out brackets, do not discount teams with deep March experience, even if they are lower seeds.
3. The 16-seed game is no longer a throwaway. Since the NCAA expanded the First Four, the 16-vs-16 game has produced genuinely compelling basketball. Howard vs. Alabama State was a better game than half of the first-round matchups will be.
Thursday and Friday Preview: The Real Tournament Begins
The First Four was the appetizer. Thursday and Friday are when 48 teams take the floor and brackets start dying. Here is what to watch.
Thursday's Must-Watch Games
5 vs. 12 matchups — Upset Central. The 5-12 game is historically the most upset-prone matchup in the tournament. Since 1985, 12-seeds have won roughly 35% of these games. That is not a coin flip, but it is close enough to make every 5-seed nervous. Circle every 5-12 game on Thursday's schedule and watch at least one of them live. At least one 12-seed is winning. It happens almost every year.
The 8-9 games are toss-ups by design. The committee seeds these matchups to be competitive, and they deliver. If you are gambling on any first-round game, the 8-9 lines are where the value tends to be because the public overweights the higher seed.
Watch the West Region. The West bracket looks like the most chaotic region in the field. The 1-seed is solid but not dominant, and the 4-5-6-7 seeds are all capable of beating each other on any given day. This is where brackets go to die.
Friday's Key Storylines
Howard vs. the 1-seed. Win or lose, this is the game of the day. An HBCU program on the biggest stage in college basketball against the tournament's top overall seed. If Howard keeps it within 10, it is a moral victory. If they keep it within 5, the building will be shaking.
The SEC gauntlet. The SEC placed a record number of teams in this year's field. Friday is when we find out if the conference was genuinely that deep or if the committee over-rewarded regular-season strength from a conference that beats itself up. If three or more SEC teams lose in the first round, the "SEC bias" debate will dominate the weekend.
Bracket Strategy: What the Data Says
If you have not filled out your bracket yet — or if you are considering blowing it up after what you saw Tuesday — here is what the historical data tells you.
Pick at least one 12-over-5 upset. It happens 35% of the time per matchup. With four 5-12 games, the probability that at least one 12-seed wins is over 80%. Picking all 5-seeds to win is statistically reckless.
Do not pick a 16-over-1. Yes, it has happened (UMBC over Virginia, FDU over Purdue). But it has happened twice in 152 opportunities. That is a 1.3% hit rate. Howard has a great story. They almost certainly do not have a win over the 1-seed.
Your Final Four should include at least one 3-seed or lower. Since 2000, a team seeded 3 or lower has made the Final Four in 17 of 26 tournaments. The all-chalk Final Four is rare. Find the mid-seed that is playing its best basketball right now and ride them.
So What?
March Madness is the best event in American sports because it compresses an entire season of narrative into single-elimination chaos. Howard's win Tuesday night mattered — not just for the program, but for every mid-major and HBCU that sees the tournament as more than a participation trophy.
Thursday is when the real tournament starts. 64 teams. Win or go home. No second chances.
If you want to put money where your bracket is, Kalshi has March Madness prediction contracts — bet on individual game outcomes, Final Four picks, and championship futures. Regulated, legal, and way more fun than your office pool that Steve from accounting wins every year despite picking teams based on mascot coolness.
