Kalshi vs Polymarket: The Quick Verdict
Kalshi is the better choice for US-based traders who want legal clarity and a regulated environment. Polymarket wins on liquidity, market variety, and pure trading volume. Your choice comes down to one question: do you want compliance or depth?
We traded on both platforms through 2025 and into 2026. Here's everything we learned.
What Are These Platforms?
Prediction markets let you bet on real-world outcomes. Will the Fed cut rates? Will a specific bill pass? Who wins the next election? You buy contracts that pay out $1 if the event happens, and $0 if it doesn't. The contract prices reflect the market's collective probability estimate.
Kalshi launched in 2021 as the first CFTC-regulated event contracts exchange in the US. That regulatory stamp matters a lot if you're a serious trader or institution. Polymarket started around the same time but took a different path, running on the Polygon blockchain and operating without US regulatory approval for most of its history.
Both platforms exploded in popularity during the 2024 US election cycle. Polymarket processed over $3.5 billion in volume around that election alone. Kalshi had strong numbers too, but Polymarket's open, crypto-native model attracted more global volume.
Regulation and Legal Status
This is the biggest practical difference between the two.
Kalshi is a designated contract market regulated by the CFTC. US residents can trade freely. Your funds are held in FDIC-insured accounts. The platform went through years of legal battles to get here, and that legitimacy is now a core part of its pitch.
Polymarket is a decentralized platform built on Polygon. It settled with the CFTC in 2022 for $1.4 million and blocked US users. US traders can still access it with a VPN, but that's a legal gray area most people probably shouldn't mess with. In 2025 and into 2026, there were signals that Polymarket was working toward some form of US compliance, but nothing firm had materialized as of our writing.
If you're based in the US, Kalshi is the obvious safe bet from a legal standpoint. If you're outside the US, Polymarket's global, crypto-native structure is easier to access and has far more liquidity on major markets.
Market Selection
Polymarket has more markets, full stop. At any given time you'll find hundreds of active markets spanning politics, sports, crypto prices, science, tech milestones, and current events. The community-driven structure means new markets spin up quickly when news breaks.
Kalshi is more curated. They list markets on economics, finance, weather, politics, and a handful of other categories. The selection is narrower, but the quality control is higher. There's less noise. If you want to bet on whether the next iPhone ships on a specific date, Kalshi probably has that. If you want to bet on whether a niche political candidate wins a local race in another country, Polymarket is more likely to have it.
One area where Kalshi genuinely stands out is financial markets. Fed rate decisions, inflation data, jobs reports, earnings surprises. These are seriously useful tools for hedging real financial exposure, not just speculation.
Liquidity and Spreads
Polymarket wins here on the major markets. Presidential elections, crypto price movements, and major sports events have tight spreads and deep order books. You can move meaningful size without slipping badly.
Kalshi has improved a lot, but on smaller markets the spreads can be wide and order books thin. For the big headline markets (US elections, Fed decisions), Kalshi holds its own. For anything off the beaten path, expect worse execution.
For what it's worth, Polymarket's AMM-based pricing on some markets can feel different from a traditional order book. Kalshi uses a more conventional limit order book structure, which traders from financial backgrounds tend to prefer.
Fees
| Platform | Trading Fees | Withdrawal Fees | Deposit Methods |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | ~7% of winnings (varies by market) | Free (ACH), small fee for wire | Bank transfer, debit card |
| Polymarket | 2% maker/taker on most markets | Gas fees (Polygon, usually low) | Crypto (USDC), some fiat on-ramps |
Kalshi's fee structure is a bit confusing. Rather than a flat percentage on trades, they take a cut of your profits. The effective rate varies by market. On paper, Polymarket's 2% looks cheaper, but gas fees and the need to hold USDC add friction for anyone who isn't already in crypto.
For pure cost efficiency on large trades, Polymarket tends to win. For simplicity and dollar-based trading, Kalshi is easier to understand.
User Experience
Kalshi feels like a fintech app. Clean interface, fiat deposits, simple order placement. You can be trading within 15 minutes of signing up if you're a US resident. The mobile app is solid.
Polymarket requires a crypto wallet (typically MetaMask or similar), you need USDC, and you need to understand how to interact with a dApp. That's a meaningful barrier for anyone who isn't already comfortable with crypto. Once you're set up, the interface is actually quite good, but the onboarding friction is real.
Kalshi wins on accessibility. Polymarket wins once you're past the setup curve, mostly because the depth of markets keeps experienced traders coming back.
Who Should Use Kalshi
- US-based traders who want a fully legal, regulated platform
- People who want to hedge financial exposure using economic event contracts
- Anyone without a crypto wallet who doesn't want to set one up
- Institutional or professional traders who need compliance documentation
- Beginners who want a clean, simple interface
Who Should Use Polymarket
- Non-US traders who want maximum market selection and liquidity
- Experienced crypto users who are already comfortable with wallets and USDC
- High-volume traders who need tight spreads on major political or crypto markets
- People who want to trade on very specific or niche real-world events
Kalshi's 2026 Improvements
Kalshi has been aggressive about expanding its market catalog. In late 2025, they launched a broader set of international political markets and added more crypto-adjacent contracts. Their API has matured significantly, making it easier for algorithmic traders to participate.
They also rolled out a pro account tier with lower fees for high-volume traders, which closes some of the gap with Polymarket on cost. If you were disappointed with Kalshi's depth a year ago, it's worth another look.
Polymarket's 2026 Status
Polymarket remains the dominant platform by raw volume. The platform processed billions in the 2024 election cycle and hasn't looked back. In 2025, they raised additional funding and continued to grow market offerings.
The US compliance question is still hanging. There's been talk of a possible regulated entity or partnership structure that could allow US users legally, but nothing concrete. If that happens, Polymarket's volume advantage combined with Kalshi-level legitimacy would make it a formidable combination. Until then, US traders face real legal risk using it.
Using AI Tools Alongside Prediction Markets
A lot of serious prediction market traders are using AI tools to research their positions. Tools like those covered in our ChatGPT vs Claude comparison can help synthesize news quickly when a market moves on breaking news. We've also seen traders use AI coding assistants (covered in our best AI coding tools roundup) to build automated trading bots for Kalshi's API.
If you're doing serious research for your trades, having a strong AI assistant in your corner helps more than you'd expect, especially for parsing Fed statements or earnings reports quickly.
The Honest Comparison
If we had to pick one platform for a US-based trader starting fresh in 2026, we'd say Kalshi. The regulatory clarity alone is worth it. But we'd also have a Polymarket account set up if we were outside the US, or if we needed markets that Kalshi simply doesn't offer.
These platforms aren't really competing for the same user in most cases. Kalshi is for regulated, accessible prediction market trading in the US. Polymarket is for deep global liquidity and maximum market variety, primarily outside the US.
The good news is that both are making these markets more legitimate, more liquid, and more useful than they were even two years ago. That's good for everyone who believes prediction markets produce real information about the world.
Final Ratings
| Category | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Regulation (US) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | ⭐⭐ |
| Market Selection | ⭐⭐⭐ | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Liquidity | ⭐⭐⭐ | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| User Experience | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Fees | ⭐⭐⭐ | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Overall (US users) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Overall (non-US) | ⭐⭐⭐ | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Bottom Line
Kalshi is better for US users who want to trade legally and simply. Polymarket is better for everyone else who wants maximum selection and liquidity. Neither platform is perfect, but together they represent a genuinely mature prediction market ecosystem that didn't exist five years ago.
Start with Kalshi if you're in the US. Watch what Polymarket does with its potential US compliance push. By the end of 2026, the gap between them may narrow considerably.