The Test Nobody Expected
Four weeks of war. Oil above $100. Gold crashing. Equities in their fourth straight losing week. And Bitcoin is sitting at $71,000.
Gold Crashed. Bitcoin Did Not.
Gold dropped 10 percent in a week — worst since 1983. Bitcoin held $71K support. The asset that was supposed to be digital gold is outperforming actual gold during a shooting war. That pattern break is data.
Why It Is Holding
Institutional ETFs changed the holder base. BlackRock and Fidelity hold for retirement accounts — not panic sellers. The $200B war supplemental means more Treasury issuance and inflation pressure. Bullish for hard-cap assets. Hash rate at all-time highs.
The Risk
If Hormuz completely shuts, a global liquidity crisis forces selling across all assets. $71K breaks and $60K is the floor. But the fact it held while gold crashed is the most interesting signal in the market right now.
